Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Passing On the Tim Horton’s IPO (THI, WEN)

The Retail Stock Blog » Passing On the Tim Horton’s IPO (THI, WEN): "Currently, there is one Tim Hortons for approximately every 11,500 Canadians. That is more than double the ratio of one McDonalds for every 21,700 Americans. There are nearly as many Tim Hortons per Canadian as there is McDonalds, Wendy’s, or Burger King combined per American. Given these figures, the market for Tim Hortons in Canada appears to be closing in on saturation. Obviously, this does not bode well for future growth."

I disagree. Until a Tim Horton's opens on my front lawn, I will continue to be bullish on the new stock.

Coffee is really just nicotine in disguise anyway. If I don't have 1-2 cups per day, my eyes start closing and I get headaches. The lineups I see are always long. Ever been to one in Barrie on a weekend, or one somewhere on the 401 near a US border?

It is almost half the price of Starbucks. It doesn't taste like crap like Dunkin' Donuts. It doesn't smell of stale cigarettes like the Coffee Time near me.

I am still partial to the real Costa Rican, Kenyan, or Columbian coffee that Timothy's or Second Cup provides, but the crack-like substance that Tim Horton's sells is growing on me.

Tim Ho's hasn't even really tapped the European market, where a Timmy's cup signifies I Am Canadian. And I didn't see one at the base of the Great Wall in China yet - prime real estate for growth when Starbucks is already in the Forbidden City.

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