Friday, October 26, 2007

Mozilla read my mind

The investment MS put into Facebook and the comments around Facebook turning to an OS got me thinking.  This morning I thought that it would be interesting for some people to have internet applications automatically available on bootup.  Things like Facebook, Flickr, Google Portal, etc.  There would need to be a replacement for the URL, which is sort of like having to dial a number to call someone, instead of just picking their name and messaging them.  It would also need to run fast, which would mean precaching as much as possible and thinking ahead by crawling links.

This new browser app doesn't look like a competitor to AiR or Silverlight to me, but Mozilla basically grabbed my idea.

Mozilla Labs is launching a series of experiments to bridge the divide in the user experience between web applications and desktop apps and to explore new usability models as the line between traditional desktop and new web applications continues to blur.

Source: Mozilla Labs Blog » Blog Archive » Prism

Really it's just a matter of hiding the toolbars and junk in the browser, and sticking with the basics.  One step closer to my idea of booting up directly into Facebook.  You could probably wrap it in a DOS-based browser and drop it on a bootable 5 1/4" floppy with the effect I was thinking of.  (remember those?)

Unfortunately, there will also be a few problems to overcome.  My favourites have become an enormous garbage pile that I rarely look in.  My blog reading list became totally unmanageable really quickly. How is this tool going to handle the 2 billion or so web pages out there?  Shortcuts on your desktop for every page? How do I share web pages with other people?  What about sites that pretend they are what they aren't?

On the plus side, how long do you think it would take to boot if the only thing you loaded was your video card drivers, a flash ram drive for caching & hosting a bootable browser, and your internet connection?

The world really only needs 5 computers anyway... and a dumb terminal to connect to them.

So why did MSFT's stock go up so much today anyway if my DOS-based Facebook Operating System is already available?

Thursday, October 25, 2007

CrossingWallStreet.com: The First Day of the Month

Is this the Mutual Fund effect?  Direct deposits from 401ks & RRSPs on the 15th & 30th? 

October 23, 2007 The First Day of the Month

Here's a surprising stat. Since the beginning of this decade, all of the market's gain have come on the first day of the month. The rest of the time, the S&P 500 is down.

image539.png

The blue line represents the first day of the month, the black line is the S&P 500. For the decade, the S&P 500 is up 2.52% and the first day is up 33%.

The last seven first days have all been up. In the decade, there have only been 94 first days out of nearly 2,000 trading days, or about 4.8% of the time.

Source: CrossingWallStreet.com: The First Day of the Month

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Microsoft beats Google to Facebook stake - Yahoo! News

MS bought a 1.6% stake in Facebook for $240 million.  My theory about Facebook becoming an Operating System is coming to fruition... FOS.

Actually FOS is taken... multiple times.. Full of Stuff eh? 

"The only way this works is if Facebook becomes sort of the users' operating system on the Internet -- everyone logs into Facebook every day to get in contact with their friends and use a multitude of future applications that will be developed for it," said Morningstar analyst Toan Tran.

Source: Microsoft beats Google to Facebook stake - Yahoo! News

Well, if Facebook has 50 million users, that means my dog is worth $4.80 as an ad eyeball?  woof!

Saturday, October 13, 2007

TED | Talks | Amy Smith: Simple designs that could save millions of childrens' lives

And Shawn's mentor, who discusses the #1 killer of children under 5 in the developing world.  What is it? 

Fumes from indoor cooking fires kill more than 2 million children a year in the developing world.

Source: TED | Talks | Amy Smith: Simple designs that could save millions of childrens' lives (video)

Wobbly Wind Power - The Micro Wind Belt

A brilliant innovative concept - learning from the results of a bridge catastrophe to create wind power using kite material and stretching it.

http://www.digg.com/general_sciences/Microwind_Generator_30X_More_Efficient_and_Cheaper

 

Link to Third-World Wind Power: First Look

Friday, October 12, 2007

2007 Breakthrough Awards - Top Innovators, Inventors, Products, Tech Gadgets of the Year - Video - Popular Mechanics

These products are amazing.  I really want the 3D fab printer, and if I could waive the monthly fee the Zonbu would be on my list too.  How about a more expensive Zonbu with access to your own FTP server?  Corporations would probably pick up on this one.

Welcome to the worry-free world of Zonbu. Included in your subscription to the Zonbu service are automatic application upgrades, continuous data back-up, a Zonbu device replacement guarantee, 30 days of free live support, unlimited Internet support, remote data access and a network storage plan that fits your needs. Breathe easy.

And of course there's the Nintendo Wii Fit, that they need to port to xBox 360 so I can play Halo with an excuse.

Link to 2007 Breakthrough Awards - Top Innovators, Inventors, Products, Tech Gadgets of the Year - Video - Popular Mechanics

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Numeric Domain Squatting?

Here's one I haven't seen yet.  The numeric DNIS (Dialed Number Representation System) version of popular .com domains are being registered for cell phone users.  Someone who attended the Facebook developers camp with me yesterday registered Facebook.com (32232665).

 

Alternatively, the same result can be achieved by entering the numeric-domain equivalent of the word 'facebook'. That sequence looks like this: http://32232665.com, which needs only 8 input clicks, almost 3 times fewer clicks.

As the owner of the 32232665.com numeric-domain, I was looking for some advice from those in the know as how to best incorporate the numeric-domain into the mix to make it easier for Facebookers to access the mobile version of the site. I proffered the use of the domain and am awaiting a response from their mobile team.

In the meantime, feel free to use 32232665.com.

Source: OnSpec - 667732: Facebook Developer Garage - Toronto

Deploying an app to Facebook with Silverlight and Popfly

 Yesterday night I received a bit of inspiration from attending FacebookCampToronto2 at the MARS centre in Toronto.  There were something like 400 attendees, young and old, and a couple of people even brought their newborn children.  It felt a bit like the "free money from the government" seminar I went to back when Trump came to town with his entourage.

The registration was easy - a biz card in a bucket or type in your name & email into a spreadsheet in a laptop.  There was no online preregistration, though this would have been easy to do with Facebook's events page.  Not sure why other shows can't get this type of thing going. 

No food or refreshments that I saw & Tim Hortons was closed, though they did provide 2 PSPs to a couple winners and a Facebook t-shirt someone probably received as swag from an event in May.  Plus we got to keep our reusable nametag badges. (or they forgot to collect them)

The first segment discussed mainly trends and demographics for Facebook apps.  The largest consistent usage outside of the US seems to come from London, UK & Canada, with Australia coming up.  The age demographics vary and seem to be fairly evenly distributed.

Ami Vora, from Corporate Communications & Developer PR @ Facebook from California attended. 

  • She eloquently discussed some of the key stats & figures for application growth, and some of the funding channels available for developers
  • $10 million offered as grants from the fbFund
  • The Catch - fbFund has first right of refusal on formally funding your app in the future. 
  • $25k - $250k is sitting on the table here...

There was no mention of Microsoft investing any capital though.

Some of these statistics can be derived from the AppsAHolic app on Facebook.  http://apps.facebook.com/appsaholic/index.php?act=viral

Another myth that I bought into was the selling of the WhereI'veBeen app for 3 million dollars.  One of the presenters mentioned that this did not happen.  Craig Ulliott, the creator of the application, confirms this (and is adding WhereI'veBeen to Myspace.)  My dreams of get-rich-quick with Facebook are shattered, and my hero Craig falls from the sky.  :)  Plus the fact that one of the presenters mentioned he spends $2500k+ a month on servers for his app. 

As the theory confirms, you usually remember the first & last presenters, and not the middle.  If any of these facts are incorrect, chalk it up to this.

I remember two presenters from Segal Communications, Janice Diner & Michael Scissons, (one of the sponsors of the group) discussing the TD Split application.

  • It lets roommates split bills on Facebook. 
  • There was the usual web 2.0 "to-the-extreme" video about marketing apps for Sony & the banks on Facebook. 
  • The application was launched in August, with "between 1000 & 2 million users." 

Roy Pereira talked about How Many ways can you Market your Application Inside Facebook. 

  • Try to add the Developer application and make a list of all of the data entry boxes to see. 
  • There's at least 12 touchpoints according to Megan from Facebook.
  • Advertise on Other Apps, Profile Page, App Directory, Status, NewsFeed, MiniFeed
  • Use banner ads, flyers, sponsored news stories
  • External email is also available to Facebook developers via anonymous mailouts

Jesse Hirsh talked about Top Applications and Why They Work.

  • He's a reformed communist
  • His presentation garnered the most laughs
  • He's anti John Tory
  • 87% of usage goes to 84 apps.
  • 45 apps have over 100k users
  • Adonomics is a good source of further metrics

Greg Thomson talked about Monetizing your Facebook Application

  • He runs My Aquarium
  • He has 8 million + users on his various apps
  • Registered users grow exponentially, though active users usually stay flat
  • He spends 2500k+ a month on servers
  • He thinks Facebook "active" vs. registered users are worth $3/person when valuing a company.
  • AppsAHolic pays $0.10/click.  Google adsense pays $0.07/click

Steve Prichard, a Facebook developer, put his friend's gift card business on Facebook (50% off restaurants in Toronto), and created a Paypal payment option.  

  • It uses 4 different levels of threading, speaks to the gift card server, Paypal, Facebook, and even handles the browser closing. 
  • It deals with over 12 race conditions 
  • It has a Java/PHP backend. 
  • It handles window popups and uses iFrames
  • It does multiple ajax calls to get what it needs
  • The geekspeek was flowing... I figured it took him months to build from the way he was talking

Turns out it took a week to develop, and much of the time he said was learning the Facebook & Paypal APIs.

This in itself is pretty impressive, but it also says that Facebook and Paypal have a ways to go with being able to integrate their solutions as seamlessly as eBay. (Well, even eBay has a ways to go) 

Geoffrey B. Roche talked about Dogbook, Catbook, and now Babybook.  He was one of the last presenters because his Mac just messed up the tech support people when dealing with the projector.  Some interpretations of his presentation:

  • Slides just look better on a Mac
  • My dog has a Facebook account and possibly soon to have a Dogbook account too
  • In a $41 billion industry in the US alone for pets, his sites should do well by default and would also impact the greatest audience 
  • The site now offers to help find your lost pet and post other people's lost pets
  • He is going to be working with the humane society to publish adoption information
  • I see a tie in with Family Guy sponsorship.  Who wants this dog?

Bogdan Arsenie talked about WishList, a screen scraping tool which takes the URLs from over 30 retailers and captures images, prices and descriptions for gift registries that your friends can purchase. 

  • Stole my screen scraping idea.  :)
  • Someone asked if what it was doing was illegal or violated terms of use on certain sites
  • Does Google violate terms of use? 
  • What about PriceGrabber? 

Phil Tucker talked about DreamBook, a dream analysis and sharing tool, that tags your friends in dreams. 

  • Stole my word analysis idea. :)
  • He said it's his 3rd or 4th app, and every time he builds one someone else comes along and finishes a similar app before him.  
  • The app itself looked pretty impressive. 
  • Lately I have been dreaming a lot, since we got a new mattress last week, and the singing drunk guy hasn't been walking up and down the street outside our house at 12am. 
  • I won't be tagging any of my friends in my dreams anytime soon.. even if they do show up...

All of these apps open up different privacy "touchpoints" that the user should be aware of. To name a couple.

  • Your wants (and the fact that you had a 50" plasma TV on your wish list that disappeared because someone bought it)
  • Your dreams (and a psychological profile of you based on them)
  • Your paypal ID
  • Your postal code
  • Your birthday
  • Your pet's names
  • Your mother's maiden name
  • Your bills
  • The fact that you are a vampire or zombie

Facebook's recent focus on developers vs. users, and opening up the brand to _Monetization_ has led to some backlash against their privacy policy, or lack of, and the glut of new applications flooding the platform.

Robert Scoble doesn't like his 5000 friend cap, and the poorly designed apps that can't handle him joining.  He commented on another blogger's posting around the tech industry's recent hyping of Facebook, and offers to beta test apps for you with his 5000 friends.

Nick O'Neill thinks Facebook needs a Golden App.

Doc Searles recently bashed "Buttbook", since they're not following an opt-in privacy policy and dumping your ass on all the major search engines.

Facebook should be around for awhile longer.  It is the #1 photo sharing web site now.  It is the #6 most trafficked site after Google.  It's now easier to use than eVite, according to my friend who plans events with hundreds of people.

Here's a job offer for a Principal Product Strategist - Social Network if Mark Zukerberg is looking for a job.  Somehow I don't think he'll apply just yet...  

 

Link to FacebookCampToronto2 on Facebook

Thursday, October 04, 2007

Facebook API Update — Circle Six Blog

Facebook worried about losing market share to www.twitter.com ?  Not anymore... 

Well, they did it. Facebook is allowing status updates through their API. You have to get “Extended Permissions” from the user, which is pretty scary for the user, but if you want to update your status from an external app, it shouldn’t be that scary. And since I’ve already done most of the work to get MoodBlast working with a homebrew Facebook app, it shouldn’t take too much to get it moving in this direction. Thanks to Reid for the tip! This will delay the next release of MoodBlast a little, but I’m sure you’ll all find it worth it in the end

Source: Facebook API Update — Circle Six Blog

I see a gadget that tells everyone in Facebook when I'm opening my fridge, or cooking dinner, or hitting snooze on my alarm clock.

Kinda like Big Brother on 'roids.

I won't sell my Facebook app for $99 billion. $100 billion though...

 You'll probably need a Facebook account to read this blog entry below.  When you add your new account, Facebook will be worth $100,000,000,010.  Why?  Because it has my wife's eyes.  And my friends.  And their friends.  And one of my friends friends is a venture capitalist with friends.  And his friends golf with Steve Ballmer, who would pay $10 billion for an equity stake, even though there are Facebook user groups dedicated to leaving if Microsoft bought them, and the real Steve Ballmer isn't even on Facebook, and if he is he doesn't have any friends. 

And then Google would probably bid up $20 billion.  Or maybe Rupert Murdoch would trade up Myspace and some Fox stock.

$100 billion probably won't be worth as much in a couple years anyway, what with the US dollar and all...  MS would be getting a bargain.

They could even bundle Facebook + MS Office Live.

The only problem would be getting all those sysadmins to unblock Facebook.com from their firewalls.  Windows Update anyone?

Others have asked, "Don't you really mean to say that Facebook will have a valuation of $100 billion at some point in the future?"
No, I'm saying that Facebook is worth $100 billion right now because that is my estimate of the price it would take to get Mark Zuckerberg to sell. I'm also saying that Facebook's IPO, which I predict will be between Oct. 2008 and Dec. 2009, will value them at $100+ billion. Shortly after that date, their common stock will be liquid and individual VC's, founders and employee shareholders can begin to cash out a portion of their shares.
Valuation is simply defined as what a willing buyer and willing seller will agree to.

Source: Facebook | Valuation, Shmaluation -- How to Win Big When Mr. Market is Wrong

After Facebook is gone the way of a .com pet sock puppet, is it possible that this new site called Story Of My Life will go on?

http://www.storyofmylifefoundation.org/

The Story of My Life Foundation exists to do nothing else but to store and safeguard your life Story and those of people you love: FOREVER.

DVDs have a shelf life of about 20 years. Papers and disks (even hard drives) are destroyed or lost. Companies come and go, as do leaders, boards of directors, even purposes for original creation change. In an ever-shifting corporate world where the volatility and uncertainty of long-term viability of online software companies, a non-profit whose mission is to safeguard your Life Story for time in-memorial is the safest way to ensure future generations will be able to learn about you.

Sounds like freezing my head for future generations...  what about just blogging & using www.internetarchive.org?

I think I'll just go bury a USB key with my life story in my backyard.  Don't USB keys last forever?  It would probably be a bit more secure.

But where do I leave the map to the key?  Maybe www.flickr.com will be around in 200 years.

Monday, October 01, 2007

Jiglu: Tags that think

I'll be applying this to all my blogs, I think.  The treemap visualization is one I have been looking for. 

Jiglu is a super-smart engine that pieces your site together, intelligently tagging and linking your web content

Jiglu: Tags that think